Alcohol semi-annual report more than expected, liquor prices are expected to remain

The disclosure of the semi-annual report is nearing completion. In the first half of the year, the performance of listed companies in the brewery industry was outstanding, and the rapid growth momentum remained. Some of the companies’ performance exceeded expectations.

The outstanding performance of the liquor industry in the first half of the year gave enterprises, markets, and the stock market great confidence. The liquor industry boom in the second half of the year will continue. Zhou Sianran, a food industry researcher at China Investment Consulting Group, pointed out to the "Securities Daily" reporter that the off-season of liquor consumption is not thin. With the approaching sales season of the Mid-Autumn National Day, it is bound to push up the price hikes for high-end and high-end liquor.

Furthermore, the current end-sale prices in the mid-to-high-end liquor market have risen. The glorious performance of the mid-to-high-end liquor companies will also contribute to the expected rise in liquor prices in the future.

Liquor mid-year report made more than impressive performance

The semi-annual report of major listed liquor companies showed that Wuliangye realized operating income of RMB 7.577 billion for the first half of the year, an increase of 42%; operating profit of RMB 3.089 billion, an increase of 44% year-on-year; and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 2.261 billion, an increase of 41% year-on-year. %.

In the first half of the year, Guizhou Moutai produced 26,624 tons of Maotai and series of liquor-based liquors, an increase of 7.87% year-on-year; operating income of RMB 6,587 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.18%; net profit of RMB 3,099.8 billion, an increase of 11.09% year-on-year.

Luzhou Laojiao 2010 mid-year report shows that the company's operating income for the first half of the year reached 2.452 billion yuan, an increase of 11.23%; total profit reached 1.379 billion yuan, an increase of 26.18%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 1.043 billion yuan, year-on-year Increase 22.38%.

Shanxi Fenjiu mid-2010 report shows that in the first half of 2010, the company achieved operating income of 1.609 billion yuan, an increase of 46.96%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company owners 334 million yuan, an increase of 44.91%; realized earnings per share of 0.77 yuan.

Golden Seed Wine 2010 interim report shows that the company achieved sales income of 645 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 37.4%; total profit of 107 million yuan, an increase of 155.48%; net profit of 85.82 million yuan, an increase of 177%.

Yanghe's 2010 mid-year report showed that in the first half of the year, operating income was 3.487 billion yuan, up 93.24% year-on-year; operating profit was 1.435 billion yuan, up 84.94% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent company was 1.067 billion yuan, up 81.39% year-on-year.

Gujing Distillery 2010 mid-year report shows: The company achieved operating income of 856 million yuan, an increase of 21.42%; operating profit of 138 million yuan, an increase of 181.85%; attributable to the parent company net profit of 107 million yuan, an increase of 201.57%.

Second-line outstanding sub-brand price potential

In an interview with Securities Daily, senior marketing planner Mu Feng pointed out that the brands, products and channels of first-tier brands such as Maotai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are relatively stable and their profitability is strong. The second-line brands such as Shanxi Fenji have appeared in the phenomenon of “advancement of the people and the country has retreated”, and it has been explained that such fast-growing enterprises as Shanxi Fenji are becoming the object of investors’ favor.

At present, the second-tier liquor brands are in a period of rapid growth. Zhou Siran believes that, first of all, in terms of the environment, although the consumption tax, prohibition and other factors affect the white liquor industry is still showing a steady growth trend, in this environment, will certainly be conducive to the rapid development of second-tier liquor brands; Second, high-end liquor The consumption has not been affected by successive price increases and other factors, and terminal consumption is still strong. It is believed that with the acceleration of the adjustment of the product structure of the second-tier liquor brands, it will continue to grow rapidly in the future.

Zhou Siran pointed out that, in fact, there are also many excellent sub-brands under the second-tier brands, such as “National Pits 1573” owned by Luzhou Laojiao, and “Blue Classics” owned by Yanghe Group, etc. These brands have the potential to raise prices. potential. The second-line brands are different from the first-line brands, and they mostly adopt the method of increasing the price of their partial products, that is, selecting one or several products from a large number of products as a pilot target to raise prices.

The Nisshin Securities research report believes that the high growth of Yanghe's shares is mainly due to the acquisition of Shuanggou Wine Group, and the increase in the gross profit rate of the Blue Classic Series products has brought about rapid growth in performance. In addition, the expansion of overseas markets brought about by Yanghe's nationalization strategy is the main focus in the future. In 2009, the growth rate and proportion of revenues outside the province were 54.59% and 26.50% respectively. In the first half of 2010, they reached 137.67% and 32.17%, respectively. In addition to the company’s advertising in CCTV, the company’s marketing and promotion work at the county and township levels is also well-developed. This high-, medium-, and low-end marketing capability in all directions is very rare in the liquor industry. Therefore, with the advancement of Yanghe's nationalization strategy, the market outside the province will be the main focus of the company's future.

Judging from the positioning of Shanxi Fen Wine Blue and White Porcelain products, Orient Securities research pointed out that the product made up for the vacancy in the product lines of high-end wines such as Maotai and Wuliangye, and at the price of more than 400 yuan, the brand power of blue and white porcelain was the highest, and the most cost-effective ratio existed. The basis for the increase in price increases, with the rising price of high-end wines, the advantages of the company’s products are even more pronounced. In recent years, the company has concentrated on product promotion and cost investment. The sales of blue and white porcelain from the current 1,000 tons to 3000 Ton over development will be achieved in the next three years, when sales costs will drop to a reasonable area.

Judging from the future growth, Mu Feng pointed out that the growth potential of Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe shares, and Anhui Gujinggong are relatively large, especially the recent actions of Fenjiu, and the clarion call to enter the first camp is particularly loud.

Zhou Siran also believes that from the current development point of view, although the second-line brands Yanghe shares, Gujing Distillery, etc. have shown a trend of rapid growth, but their gap with the first-line brands is still relatively large, it will take quite a long time to squeeze into the first-line brands.