Business News Agency August 20th Following the continuous rise of the domestic Chinese herbal medicines market price index that began in the first half of 2009, the market has entered a new round of rapid upward movement since July 2010. Reflected in the industry market index, it is the strong rebound in the pharmaceutical market for five consecutive weeks. Especially in the second week of August, the market index soared by 159.71 points, with an average increase of 5.61%. The single-species increased by more than 100% on a week-to-date basis. There were bergamots, locusts and asters that rose by more than 30%, and the increase was more than 90%. 10% is as many as 20, creating the second highest historical increase in the past decade (last appeared during the SARS outbreak in 2003).
On Wednesday, August 18, the eleventh day after the autumn of the lunar calendar. At this time of year, the hot heat began to recede. In Chunan's “Zhe Ba Wei†market, the heat of Chinese herbal medicines did not decline with the retreat of the heat, but it was higher day by day.
Early in the morning, Lao Chen sat in front of the computer to check the weather in Guizhou, Fujian, and Anhui. Lao Chen, who has spent more than 20 years in the business of Chinese herbal medicines, began to use the high-tech gadgets of computers to do business in his own year. “These areas are the main producing areas of Taizishen, and their weather conditions are closely linked to Taizishen's price trend.â€
Price burns like fire
"The same prescription, 26.6 yuan for grabbing a pack a half a month ago is now 49.8 yuan. This Chinese medicine has also risen faster." After comparing the two bills, Lin Yujie shook her head reluctantly. According to her billing documents, traditional Chinese medicine called Atractylodes macrocephala, 70 grams of medicinal herbs, only needs 3.36 yuan on July 30, 3.78 yuan on August 15, and 12.5% ​​in 15 days.
The price increase that Lin Yujie feels is only a microcosm of the price increase of Chinese herbal medicines. At the end of last year, after leading Chinese herbal medicines such as March, another wave of Chinese herbal medicine prices surged.
On August 18, in the “Zhejiang Eight Flavors†market in Lu’an, the price of Taizijian of Lu’an’s property has soared to 188 yuan/kg, which is higher than the highest price in history. A month ago, the price was only 80 yuan/kg, which rose by 2.35 times in one month. If we start from the price of 20 yuan/kg at the beginning of this year, Taizishen’s increase has exceeded 900%.
Lao Chen told the Herald’s reporter that Taizishen’s price had been lingering for 3 years at the low of 20 yuan/kg, rising slowly from the beginning of the year and suddenly starting to worry about in May and June. The craziest day was July 19, one day. It rose by 20 yuan/kg.
"I have seen more prices, have never seen such a price increase." So crazy prices so that the old Chinese medicine business for more than 20 years also amazed. Some dealers report that in previous years when Taizishen reduced its output, the price rose by up to a dozen yuan per kilogram. It has never been more than one hundred kilograms per kilogram this year.
The price of Chinese herbal medicines such as Taizishen, Fritillaria, Yuanhu, Atractylodes, and Angelica are skyrocketing. The data of Pan’an “Zeba†market also confirms this. According to monitoring, the price of fritillaria rose from 40 yuan to 44 yuan/kg on July 16 to 52 yuan to 54 yuan/kg, and the price of yuanhu rose from 36 yuan to 36.5 yuan/kg to 39.6 yuan to 40 yuan. Yuan/kg. In addition, the honeysuckle, which has returned to a stable level after soaring, has also recently gained in price, which is about 25%.
In stark contrast to the “crazy†Chinese herbal medicines, the current market for Chinese herbal medicines appears to be relatively light, and the Chinese herbal medicine market has not shown a general rise in the volume of commodity prices.
Many Chinese herbal medicine distributors are afraid to purchase at high prices. The trading of Chinese herbal medicines in the “Zhe Ba Wei†market is extremely calm. "Recently, the market has not seen much demand for merchants, the price is too high, no one dares to purchase." "Zheba flavor" market, a business operator Cai name tells the Herald reporter.
The weather is so bad
According to the business households in Zhaoan and Zhawei Market, the increase in Chinese herbal medicines in this round is closely related to the weather.
It is understood that Taizishen is a commonly used Chinese herbal medicine. Fujian Rong and Xuanzhou in Anhui are the areas with the most concentrated cultivation, and the largest output, which accounts for most of the national market supply. However, Fujian Yongrong was attacked by cold currents in the spring of this year, and in the summer, it experienced continuous rainfall impregnation. It is expected that the output will be reduced by 40%-50%; Shibing County in Guizhou was continuously dry in the spring and was continuously raining in the latter part of the year, making Taizishen see a strong seedling, but The roots are thin and even rot, and the yield is greatly reduced. The current situation of new production rough statistics, this year's national Taizijian only 3000-3500 tons, a total reduction of about 30%.
Not only that, but all the country's production areas and markets together, the stocks of heterophylla remain only 60-100 tons this year, while the amount of Taizishen that is currently used only for pharmaceutical plants has exceeded 900 tons.
Similarly, Yuan Hu and Fritillaria are the same because of the expected price cuts that have caused the prices to skyrocket. Mr. Fu, an analyst at the Chinese herbal medicines website, told reporters that the rise in the price of Chinese herbal medicines is mainly caused by the contradiction between supply and demand. Due to the shortage of supply, some Chinese herbal medicines tend to increase in price. According to him, traditional Chinese medicinal materials such as Chinese wolfberry and Chinese wolfberry have been declining year by year due to low prices for many years. This year, affected by low-temperature weather, the output has decreased, and the supply has fallen short of demand, causing prices to rise.
In response to this round of price hikes, experts from the Chinese Medicines Market Professional Committee of the Chinese Medicine Association analyzed that the main reasons for the increase in prices of commonly used Chinese herbal medicines were adverse weather such as late spring, drought, flood, etc., which led to the reduction of production sites in south and north Yunnan, Gansu, and other drug-producing areas. To. "Although traditional Chinese medicines are used as a kind of agricultural product, they do not have national regulation and strategic reserves like food. When they encounter insufficient production, they naturally have to follow the market."
“Another reason that cannot be ignored is that the demand for these years has been too strong.†The exuberant demand in Lao Chen’s mouth has been categorized by the industry as the need for treatment and health care, such as health care, and Baiyin is a typical product.
“Another reason that cannot be ignored is that the demand for these years has been too strong.†The exuberant demand in Lao Chen’s mouth has been categorized by the industry as the need for treatment and health care, such as health care, and Baiyin is a typical product.
With the improvement of living standards, traditional Chinese medicine has proven curative effects, little side effects, and beneficial effects on the body, gradually increasing the demand for Chinese herbal medicine. Take Baiju as an example. With the development of the “health concept,†Bai Xi’s “being omnipotent†health care products, especially among many female friends, will be regarded as “universal†health products.
Hot money pushing
Natural disasters are only an excuse. Man-made disasters are the main cause. In view of many people, hot money speculation is the driving force behind this round of Chinese herbal medicine prices.
Lao Chen is considered a “big family†in the “Zhe Ba Wei†market. Recently, his main business has become the Internet to check the weather in various Chinese herbal medicine production areas. "There are still a lot of people who want to ship, but now Chinese herbal medicines are all increasing prices." With regard to the bulk commodities, Lao Chen is not a taboo. With years of experience, Lao Chen has been increasing purchases and raising stocks of heterophylla from the first half of the year. .
There are not many people who share the same views with him. In the “Zhe Ba Wei†market, although many business households are operating normally, if some people want to purchase a large amount of Taizi Sensing at one time, and they are not paying in cash, the answer they receive may only be the word “out of stockâ€.
In fact, Chinese herbal medicine traders have already accumulated a large amount of Chinese herbal medicines in stock.
"Some traders are indeed reluctant to sell in the closing offer." An industry source said that the decrease in production coupled with the weather this year constitutes a direct price increase factor, but it is still not enough to make prices rise so ridiculously. He said that he saw that the volume of shipments was small, and all links were rushing to control some of the sources of supply. This was an important reason for the continuous increase in the price of the circulation chain.
It is understood that the Taizi ginseng has skyrocketed and there are also factors that plunder goods from various sources of production. In July and August, when new medicinal materials were introduced, speculators would choose to take a batch of goods to the market and suppress the price of the product. Many drug dealers saw the price decline and they would not dare to purchase goods. At this time, speculators would purchase a lot of goods and wait for most drugs. After they were in their hands, the price went up.
As for hot money speculation, Lao Chen pointed to state-owned enterprises and listed companies. He took honeysuckle as an example. In October last year, the purchase price rose to four or five hundred yuan per kilogram. This has a lot to do with the hoarding and hype of a well-known company engaged in traditional Chinese medicine beverages.
"Because honeysuckle can be stored for a year or so and it is hoarded at a low price, this company is said to have made a profit of 2 billion yuan." Lao Chen said that fortunately the local government intervenes, so this year's honeysuckle prices have fallen from last year's high. .
According to the relevant person in charge of the Chinese Medicine Association, hype is certainly present. “Chinese herbal medicines belong to agricultural and sideline products, the price has long been liberalized, and the speculators will not be underestimated in the speculative role in the new round of herbal price increases.â€
Xu Qing, a researcher in the pharmaceutical industry of Soochow Securities, said that the price of 80% of Chinese herbal medicines has doubled or even more recently, not only because of floods and earthquakes, but also because some of the original capital invested in the property market evacuated and entered the Chinese herbal medicine market. Hype, this has a great impact on the Chinese herbal medicine market. After these funds come in, it is enough to monopolize some medicinal herbs. For speculators, there is almost no risk of frying medicinal herbs, mainly depending on the cost of hoarding medicinal herbs. At the same time, he said that, according to the usual practice, these funds will not stay in this market for a long time, and they will rise to a certain high level. Earning double or double profits will go.
Who is the last to pay the bill
The farmers in Chun'an have a special liking for Yuanhu. Even at the lowest price of 9.5 yuan per kilogram, there are still many farmers who stick to it. Now they have met with a good market and have even stimulated their enthusiasm. However, in the "Zhe Ba Wei" medicinal herbs, the market price is not uncommon, Yuan Hu has such a history.
In 1997, the highest purchase price of Yuanhu reached 75 yuan per kilogram. The high prices led farmers to blindly expand the planting area. Some medicine farmers went to Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Anhui and other places to rent species, and expanded the number of acres to tens of thousands of mu. The supply and demand pattern of oversupply in the market After its appearance, the sky-price bubble was quickly crushed, prices fell all the way, forty or fifty yuan per kilogram, thirty or forty yuan, and finally plummeted to six yuan, so that drug users were injured.
This is a lesson from the past.
According to investigations by institutions such as the Institute of Medicinal Economics of the South, as Chinese herbal medicines prices have risen steadily, some Chinese patent medicine manufacturing companies have been deeply affected by the rapid growth of raw material costs, and some products have already begun to restrict production or even stop production.
According to the monitoring of Chinese herbal medicine world network, in the first half of this year, along with the price increase, the demand for domestic raw material procurement has begun to decline gradually, among which Chinese medicines, decoction pieces, health products, etc. In 20%, the increase in transaction volume in the first half of 2010, especially in the near-term, was more in the circulation and downsizing between operators and stock pickers. Some of the hot-spot varieties such as Panax pseudoginseng, heterophylla, bergamot, and even forsythia have already changed hands several times, and the actual demand is not obvious.
Some people believe that at present, the model of traditional Chinese medicine in the country's medicine market and thousands of households has long been unable to support the modernization of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Apart from excessive distribution and quality control, it has become a hotbed for speculation and hype. ".
Each round of downsizing means an increase in costs. The shortage of resources and the abundance of funds make it possible for stockholders to wait for prices to rise, leading to a higher drug market. This kind of “drum flowering and flower passing†can only have two results. First, the ultimate high-priced picker becomes the scapegoat for saving the speculators. In the high-priced traps, they face the situation that there is no market and they are unstoppable in height; they act as warehouse custodians; The shortage of resources, and the enterprise or social demand is a rigid raw material variety, will bear the burden of price increase by the consumers.
No matter what kind of results will endanger the stability of the supply and supply of raw materials for Chinese herbal medicines, it will endanger the normal operation of the Chinese medicine industry chain, and it will be a detrimental to the sustainable development of the Chinese nation's advantageous industries.
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