Food prices fell or fell by 10 yuan from Beijing pork in June

The National Bureau of Statistics will release the October CPI data tomorrow. As food prices have continued to fall since late October, prices of some agricultural products have also dropped. The market generally expects that the CPI increase in October will show a significant drop from the same period of last year, which is expected to fall to around 5.5%, and may even be lower than 5.5%. In particular, it is worth noting that brokers expect the food price of CPI to fall by 0.4% month-on-month in October, which is expected to be the first decline since June and the CPI is expected to fall in real terms at the end of the year.

From the relevant high-frequency monitoring data, it can also be seen that in October, the overall decline in food prices is evident. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that food prices fell by 0.8% month-on-month in October; data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that food prices fell for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of 1.2%; the Ministry of Agriculture also showed that food prices fell by 3.9% in September from the previous month in September. It fell another 0.6% in the first week.

Some of the recent agricultural product prices have also plummeted, to some extent eased inflationary pressures. Taking Shandong, the main producing area of ​​agricultural products, as an example, Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture monitored the price of 35 kinds of vegetables. During the week of October 24-30, the average price of vegetable wholesale in Shandong was 2.39 yuan/kg, which fell for the fourth consecutive week and fell 92.08 from the same period of last year. %, ginger, garlic also dropped more than 70% year-on-year, last year in the agricultural market to dominate the "Ginger your military" "garlic yours," the scenery is no longer.

In addition, due to cyclical factors and insufficient supply, pork prices have continued to rise since May this year and have become the main driver of high CPI. However, the current pork prices have shown signs of stabilization, and data from Sogou.com shows that pork prices have dropped for the eighth consecutive week, and the cumulative decline in October has reached 4.6%.

"The rise in inflation can be attributed to seasonal factors. With the fall in pork and vegetable prices, the carryover factor is also decreasing and the price decline is within expectations." Yuan Gangming, a macroeconomic researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the inflation turning point has long been formed and is expected to October CPI gains will fall sharply to 5.5%.

Lu political commissar of the Industrial Bank chief economist also said that taking into account in October the tailfall factor will be reduced by 0.7 percentage points compared with September, is expected in October CPI year-on-year increase will be a sharp drop of 0.6 percentage points to 5.5%.

Many agencies have even lower forecasts. Guotai Junan predicts that inflation will fall sharply for two consecutive months. The October CPI increase will fall from 6.1% to 5.3%, and it will drop to 4.2% in November. Debon Securities expects that the October CPI gains will fall back to 5.1%-5.2%.

In particular, it is worth noting that the CPI is expected to fall in the ring. Previously, the year-on-year increase in CPI fell from 6.2% in August to 6.1%, while the CPI was still rising month-on-month and the increase was increased from 0.3% to 0.5%. Guotai Junan expects CPI food prices to fall by 0.4% month-on-month in October, which is expected to be the first decline since June, and the CPI in November is expected to fall by 0.3%.

Regarding the direction of macroeconomic policies in the future, experts have stated that monetary policy will not have much movement, but fiscal policy will play an important role in targeted easing, and it will be able to cope with the possible economic slowdown and help structural adjustment. Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, believes that the orientation of positive fiscal policy is expected to continue in the fourth quarter and continue into the next year, mainly focusing on the protection of housing development, rural areas and irrigation development.

Pork prices have fallen to the lowest level since May this year in the new hair market in Beijing’s largest agricultural wholesale market.

According to statistics from the Xinfadi market, on November 4, the average wholesale price of white striped pigs at Xinfadi market was 9.75 yuan/kg, which was the lowest point since May 5, up from 7.88 yuan/kg in the same period of last year. 23.73%; a decrease of 14.70% from 11.43 yuan/kg on October 4; and a decrease of 6.07% from 10.38 yuan/kg on October 28.

The price of 9.68 yuan/kg on November 2 was the lowest since May 3, and it was the first time since the average price of the white striped pig reached the 2-digit high price level on May 9 of this year. .

The relevant person in charge of the new market said yesterday that the fast and fierce decline in the price of meat has surprised many people. Last week, the average price of white striped pigs was the same as the price of the pigs at the peak of the meat price. On November 4, the wholesale price was 9.75 yuan/kg. The market volume of new hair market was more than 1700, and several wholesalers accounted for the same day. The loss was close to 200,000 yuan and the average pig loss was 115 yuan.

According to industry analysts, the decline in the price of meat is a decisive fall. The high price of pork in the previous period stimulated an increase in the number of live pigs. The number of pigs slaughtered recently has increased significantly, and the supply of pork has increased. Prices have dropped naturally.